A monologue of my first year in office by Barrack Obama

Financial Crisis!?!? It’s not my fault. It’s never my fault! I have such good intentions…. And logically good intentions always produce good results right??? Since it obviously can’t be my fault it’s their fault. Who’s to blame? Those greedy fat cat bankers; blame them!!! In the mean time my fault-free administration is going to save America with bailouts:

"We also took steps to prevent the rapid dissolution of the American auto industry, which faced a crisis partly of its own making, to prevent the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs during an already fragile time,"

-President Obama

"This recovery plan will save or create more than three million new jobs over the next few years,"

–President Obama

"We're moving in the right direction. We're starting to make real progress on the road to recovery. Quite simply, the Recovery Act is performing as advertised."

-Joe Biden

Look at me everyone I just saved the world!!!! (p.s. Thanks for the Nobel Peace Prize… I deserved every vote; I’m also glad you agree with me that sending 100,000 troops to Afghanistan is for peace purposes) Ohh wait, we’re going to lose money on the bailout and the American people don’t support it??? Well one thing is for sure, I DID NOT support the bailouts… Actually no one like the bailouts, yeah, we didn’t like it at all:

“And if there's one thing that has unified Democrats and Republicans, it's that we all hated the bank bailout. I hated it. You hated it. It was about as popular as a root canal.”

-President Obama

You see it was all Tim Geithner and Ben Bernake’s idea sooooo you really can’t blame me. In a completely unrelated matter I do support both their reconfirmation. They’re good men, good intentions which ALWAYS equals good results. If the bailout does get repaid you can send me a thank you card addressed to: 1600 Pennsylvania Ave Washington, DC 20500. But remember if the bailouts don’t get paid it was Tim Geithner’s plan all along and it’s not my fault.

"Faced with crisis, the man of character falls back on himself. He imposes his own stamp of action, takes responsibility for it, makes it his own."

-Chales de Gaulle

"For years governments have been promising more than they can deliver, and delivering more than they can afford."

-Paul Martin

"You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today."

-Abraham Lincoln

"Let us not seek the Republican answer or the Democratic answer, but the right answer. Let us not seek to fix the blame for the past. Let us accept our own responsibility for the future."

-John F. Kennedy

State of the Union

Thanks President Obama for that encouraging State of the Union Address last night....you must not have been convincing enough?

I present you with the REAL State of the Union.....

Nasdaq Composite

S&P 500 Index


Dow Jones Industrial Average


Dow Jones Transportation Average

Dollar update

Some crazy action in the futures and forex market tonight, be ready for a VERY interesting day tomorrow...

This goes with the post below too so make sure you check out the post below this too.

Here was the last update on the dollar: http://absolute-investments.blogspot.com/2010/01/count-on-dollar.html

This flat turned out to be spot on and we are currently here on the hourly chart.
I went long a couple of contracts as it was breaking out of the triangle at 76.46.

Gold and Oil prediction revisited.....

Here is the link to my gold and oil charts from early December calling this short term rally in gold and oil: http://absolute-investments.blogspot.com/2009/12/short-term-oil-gold-rally.html

Here's the oil prediction...

Here's what happened... turning point i estimated around the white circle. It went slightly above bouncing off resistance from previous highs. I'm expecting weaker demand and oil to fall from here.
Here's what I predicted for gold..

Gold fell just short of my target but continued down sharply like i was expecting... I am still very bearish with gold in the short-intermediate time-frame

Quote of the Day

In response to this article on Yahoo Finance! - "Obama announces initiatives for middle class"

In a partial preview of a State of the Union address that aims to answer voter angst about the economy and reconnect with the public, Obama outlined the series of proposals from the White House. The product of a middle class task force headed by Vice President Joe Biden, the proposals will also be included in Obama's budget request due to be submitted to Congress next week.

This is insane....my only response is a quote from Ronald Reagan.

"In this present crisis government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem."

-Ronald Reagan

Credit risk rising?

The TED spread is basing....look what happened the last time it based like this:

Goldman beats estimates....why are they down 5% and their CDS cost are up 21% on the day? Doesn't sound to me like they are doing so good.

According to Forbes:

"The investment bank crushed earnings estimates at $8.20 per share."

Zerohedge has a different story....

"Goldman Credit Default Swaps have surged by over 20% on the day the firm may have finally lost its trading "edge." With a 5% decline in the stock, the company default risk has jumped to a 5 month high at 121 bps."

Point being...risk is still high, the system is broken, and you had better be careful going long equities at this point.

Tighten your belts...goodbye carry trade

GOODBYE OBAMA, GOODBYE BERNAKE, GOODBYE GEITHNER, and with them GOODBYE to the dollar carry trade.....look out below Dow.

Check the model portfolio link on the right side of the page...it's doing swell today!

Dow Jones Industrials