Portfolio Update - 12/4/2009

Well, I've been managing a portfolio for a couple of weeks now. Sorry the updates haven't been posted like I had hoped, but now that I have a little more time I can start posting more consistently. Here is the link to see my portfolio:

http://www.kaching.com/portfolio/83948/holdings

There you can see my portfolio holdings and my performance against the S&P 500.

Currently we are still betting on a sudden change in the market's intermediate term trend. I still very strongly believe that the U.S. Dollar is going to see a massive rally and with that the stock market will take a tremendous hit, eventually seeing new lows.

I am positioned with a large portion of my portfolio long the U.S. dollar and long-term U.S. treasuries. I also am short a few financial and commodity related companies that I feel will be hurt in a deflationary environment.

I am, however, going to maintain a large portion of my portfolio in cash. If I sense a continuation of the current market rally I can use this cash to buy a position in the S&P 500 to hedge my short exposure and minimize losses.

Update on U.S. Dollar

Things are going as planned....

Here is an update of the U.S. Dollar chart I posted a few weeks ago. I had called for a continued fall in the dollar to the uptrend line. Looks like that was dead on. We are now sitting on that uptrend line.

U.S. Dollar Index

A turn in the dollar is imminent. With the turn in the dollar will come a turn in the stock market and we will position ourselves accordingly with a long position in the dollar and short positions in the stock market.

Possible Scenarios for S&P 500....

S&P 500 Index